Monthly · Census Bureau via FRED
Housing Starts counts how many new homes broke ground last month - and because a house takes months to build and requires lumber, copper, appliances, and labor, each start represents a significant chain of economic activity to come. It is a genuine leading indicator because the decision to break ground comes before all the economic activity generated by actually building the home. Published monthly by the Census Bureau.
Above 1.5 million annualized units is healthy for current U.S. household formation needs. Between 1.2-1.5 million is moderate. Below 1 million is associated with housing market stress - starts dropped below 500K during the worst of the 2008 bust. Watch single-family starts separately from multifamily - single-family is more interest-rate sensitive and is the better cyclical indicator. Permits tend to lead starts by 1-2 months, so a gap between permits and starts signals whether the pipeline is filling or draining.
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