Monthly · NAR via FRED
Existing Home Sales counts how many previously owned homes sold last month - the primary measure of housing market activity given that existing homes make up roughly 90% of all home transactions. A home sale means a realtor got paid, furniture got bought, renovations got planned, and wealth changed hands. When existing sales collapse, a broad swath of the economy feels it. Published monthly by the National Association of Realtors.
Above 5.5 million annualized units is a healthy market. Between 4-5.5 million is moderate. Below 4 million is a stressed market. Sales peaked at 7.2 million in 2005. The single biggest driver of existing home sales today is the lock-in effect - homeowners with 3% mortgages have no incentive to sell into a 7% market, constraining supply and keeping transaction volumes low even when demand is present. Watch months of supply alongside sales: below 3 months is a strong seller market with rising prices; above 6 months favors buyers and signals price softening is coming.
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Analysis updated: Jul 13, 2026
At 4,090K units, existing home sales remain above the post-pandemic lows seen in late 2022 and early 2023, suggesting the housing market has found a tentative floor rather than entering a renewed freefall. A stabilization at current levels, if accompanied by easing mortgage rates, could release pent-up demand from locked-in homeowners and support a gradual recovery in transaction volumes through the second half of 2026.
The continued falling trend in existing home sales reflects persistent affordability constraints driven by elevated mortgage rates and stubbornly high home prices, a combination that effectively sidelines first-time and move-up buyers. Prolonged weakness in transaction volumes suppresses related spending on furniture, appliances, and home improvement, creating negative spillovers into consumer durables and broader household formation trends.
Existing home sales are a coincident-to-lagging indicator, meaning the current 4,090K reading confirms ongoing stress in housing rather than signaling future direction. This level should be interpreted alongside 30-year fixed mortgage rates, active inventory data, and the NAR affordability index to assess whether the lock-in effect is intensifying or beginning to ease. Watch for any sustained move above 4,300K as a potential inflection signal, and monitor the Federal Reserve's rate path as the primary catalyst for a meaningful demand recovery.
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