Monthly · U.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Durable Goods New Orders measures orders placed with U.S. manufacturers for products built to last at least three years - aircraft, machinery, vehicles, and industrial equipment. These are large capital-intensive decisions that businesses make when they are confident about the future, so the orders data is a genuine forward-looking indicator of business investment. Published monthly by the Census Bureau with approximately a one-month lag.
The headline number is extremely volatile because a single large aircraft order can swing it by billions. Strip out defense and aircraft to get the core capital goods orders number - this clean measure of business investment intentions shows YoY growth above 5% when capex momentum is strong. Negative YoY in core orders is a warning sign that businesses are pulling back on investment. A sustained 3-month decline in core durable goods orders has preceded the last four recessions - it is one of the most reliable leading indicators of business investment cycles.
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Analysis updated: Oct 12, 2026
The current reading of $338.6B, while declining, may represent a healthy normalization following an extended post-pandemic capital expenditure cycle rather than a structural demand collapse. Firms may be drawing down elevated backlogs accumulated during supply-chain disruptions, meaning underlying end-demand remains more resilient than the headline trend implies. If the rate of decline stabilizes in the coming months, the pullback could prove shallow, preserving the foundation for a soft landing scenario.
A falling trend in durable goods orders, given the indicator's 3–6 month leading property, signals a meaningful risk of business investment contraction entering late 2026 and into 2027. Declining orders typically reflect tightening corporate credit conditions, softening earnings expectations, and reduced CEO confidence — all of which can trigger a broader capex retrenchment that compounds into weaker employment and output. If the decline accelerates or broadens beyond transportation into core capital goods, it would materially raise the probability of a recessionary growth trajectory.
At $338.6B, this reading sits within a decelerating growth regime and warrants close monitoring alongside the ISM Manufacturing New Orders sub-index and nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft — the Fed's preferred proxy for business investment intentions. The current macro environment is characterized by still-restrictive real interest rates and uncertain demand conditions, both of which structurally pressure forward orders. Key thresholds to watch include whether month-over-month declines persist beyond two consecutive quarters and whether the shipments-to-orders ratio begins to compress, which would confirm a genuine demand deterioration rather than an inventory adjustment.
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