Monthly · Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED
The CFNAI is a monthly economic activity index built from 85 existing indicators spanning production, income, employment, and consumption. Rather than tracking one economic measure, it aggregates dozens of them into a single reading that filters out individual data point noise. Published monthly by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank with roughly a one-month lag.
Zero represents trend growth for the U.S. economy historically. Positive means above-trend growth. Negative means below-trend. A 3-month moving average below -0.7 has been a reliable recession signal - the NBER has used it as part of their recession dating process. Above 0.2 indicates solid economic momentum. Because it aggregates 85 indicators, the CFNAI is less subject to any single data distortion than individual economic releases. It is most useful for confirming signals from other indicators rather than as a standalone alert.
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Analysis updated: Oct 11, 2026
A reading of -0.04 is marginally below the zero threshold, which historically separates below-trend from above-trend growth, suggesting the economy is essentially running at its long-run potential rather than contracting. Given the index's composition across 85 economic indicators, such a modest negative print may reflect temporary softness in one or two subsectors rather than a broad-based deterioration. If upcoming revisions or subsequent months restore the index toward positive territory, the current reading may prove to be statistical noise within a still-resilient expansion.
The combination of a negative reading and a falling trend is a meaningful warning signal, as the CFNAI's leading properties suggest economic momentum 3–6 months out could weaken further from an already sub-trend pace. Historically, a three-month moving average sustained below -0.70 has been associated with recession onset, and continued deterioration from the current level would begin to close that gap. The falling trend raises concern that headwinds — whether from tighter credit conditions, weakening labor markets, or reduced consumer spending — may be compounding rather than dissipating.
The CFNAI reading of -0.04 situates the economy in a below-trend but non-recessionary zone, consistent with a late-cycle slowdown narrative that has been reinforced by softening ISM data and a gradually cooling labor market. The three-month moving average of the CFNAI is the critical threshold to monitor, as a sustained move below -0.35 would signal meaningfully below-trend growth and elevate recession risk assessments. Investors and policymakers should watch the next 1–2 monthly prints alongside the Philadelphia Fed Leading Index and credit spread dynamics to assess whether this softness is cyclically self-correcting or the beginning of a more pronounced downswing.
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