Weekly · Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
GDPNow is the Atlanta Fed's real-time estimate of what GDP growth is right now, this quarter, updated multiple times per month as each new economic data point is released. It is not a forecast based on judgment. It mechanically applies the BEA GDP methodology to the data available today. Unlike the official GDP report which comes out weeks after a quarter ends, GDPNow updates in real time as new data drops, giving you a live read on how the economy is tracking right now.
Above 2.5% signals healthy expansion. Between 1-2.5% is moderate growth. Below 1% raises stall-speed concerns. A negative mid-quarter GDPNow reading is a serious warning signal and typically moves markets. GDPNow is noisier early in the quarter when little data is in, and converges to accuracy within the final 3-4 weeks before the BEA advance release. When GDPNow diverges sharply from the Wall Street consensus, one of them is wrong, and GDPNow has a solid track record in the final weeks of the quarter.
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Analysis updated: Jul 12, 2026
The 1.3% GDPNow estimate, while modest, still reflects positive growth momentum and may represent a soft-landing scenario where the Fed's tightening cycle successfully cools inflation without triggering a contraction. Inventory restocking, resilient consumer spending in services, and a stabilizing labor market could provide a floor that prevents further deceleration. If the falling trend reverses in coming weeks as trade and consumption data improve, the early-quarter weakness may prove transitory.
A 1.3% reading with a falling trend is a significant warning signal, as GDPNow's 3–6 month lead time suggests the real economy could approach stall speed or outright contraction by Q3–Q4 2026. Persistent softness in goods demand, tightening credit conditions, and weakening global trade flows could compound domestic headwinds, leaving little buffer against an external shock. If the estimate continues to drift toward zero, recession probability models will reprice materially and risk assets will face sustained pressure.
This reading sits well below the long-run U.S. potential growth rate of approximately 1.8–2.0%, signaling that the economy is operating below its productive capacity and that slack may be building. The GDPNow model is particularly sensitive to early trade and retail sales releases, so the next key data points to watch are the advance goods trade balance, June retail sales, and industrial production figures. A threshold of 1.0% or below would historically align with conditions that precede Fed easing pivots and warrant a meaningful reassessment of the growth outlook.
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